On the Paraguayan election of 2018: Que sera sera yet again

The Paraguayan general and presidential elections delivered yet more two-party dominance by the conservative Colorado Party, once led by infamous dictator Alfredo Stroessner, and the Radical Liberal Party, which in practice has very few policy differences from the Colorado Party.

The total two-party vote at this election was even stronger than before, with the Colorado Party's victorious presidential candidate, Mario Abdo Benitez, achieving 46.44% with Efrain Palegre of the Great Renewed National Alliance, dominated by the Radical Liberal Party, achieving 42.74%, meaning that the two largest parties achieved 89.18% of the presidential vote between them. By contrast, their total vote share in 2008, the first defeat of the Colorado Party in 60 years, was only 74.15%. The National Union of Ethical Citizens, which briefly split the Colorado Party's vote and make a significant crack in the two-party dominance of Paraguay, has now vanished from the scene of Paraguayan politics although nonetheless the Colorado Party's majority in the Chamber of Deputies (the lower house in Paraguay, with the upper house being the Senate) was reduced from 12 seats to just 4.

In a situation similar to Spain in the Noughties, the two largest parties won almost 90% of the parliamentary seats despite the fact proportional representation is used to elect both houses of Paraguay's parliament; the Colorado Party won 42 seats, down from 46, and the Radical Liberals won 29 seats, up from 26. Five new parties entered the Chamber of Deputies, notably including the Paraguayan Green Party who have won their first ever seat in the Chamber of Deputies, and whose presidential candidate, Juan Bautista Ybanez, managed 3.26% although it was enough for third place. The new Beloved Fatherland Party managed to win 3 seats and clearly contributed to the Colorado Party's seat losses; a failure by the two largest parties in Paraguay to resolve perennial problems, such as grossly uneven land distribution, extensive corruption and persistent non-enforcement of human rights protections, has led to a wide vacuum for smaller parties to make their mark.

However, two-party dominance is set to persist there for a long time to come, barring a major crisis.  Que sera sera, as they say.

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