On the Hungarian parliamentary election of 2018: A teflon konzervatív Orban ismét bepattan
The recent Hungarian election returned Putinesque conservative Viktor Orban and his Fidesz-KDNP (Christian Democratic National Party) coalition once again, and with one more seat than before, giving them 134 and allowing them to keep their supermajority (a 2/3 majority, which is required to change the Constitution of Hungary).
Despite Viktor's illiberal regime and Putinesque control of Hungarian media, his hardline stances have actually struck a chord with many younger Hungarian voters who had never lived under Communist rule, which ended in 1989, and particularly those who feel left behind by the European Union. Fidesz' support is weakest in the capital, Budapest, and strongest in the western rural areas without a history of a strong industrial base and which are reasonably prosperous. Hungary is not a particularly urbanised country, with Budapest being 8 1/2 times the size of the second largest city, Debrecen, and with a population density only approximately 35% of that of the United Kingdom. Only seven cities outside the Hungarian capital have a population of more than 100,000, and this is significant when the population of Hungary is nearly 10,000,000. These demographics work substantially to Fidesz' advantage, and also to JOBBIK's in the poorer industrialised areas to the east.
True to form, Fidesz managed to increase its vote share by 4.16%, although it only gained 1 seat overall due to the fact it lost several single member constituencies in Budapest as a result of tactical voting. In Budapest's 1st constituency, Antal Csardi of LMP (Lehes Mat a Politika, Hungary's green party) won due to the Hungarian Socialists' candidate withdrawing, and the LMP withdrew some of their candidates in order to help defeat Fidesz-KDNP. Some Hungarian Socialist-Dialogue (a splinter from LMP) candidates withdrew to help the liberal Democratic Coalition Party (led by former Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurscany), three of whose candidates won SMCs in Budapest in addition to 6 list MPs. A similar effort was unable to ensure LMP leader Bernadett Szel's win of Budakezi (Pest's 2nd constituency), however; she lost by only 786 votes nonetheless so the LMP likely capture it next time around. LMP managed to improve their support somewhat, rising to 6.88% of the vote and 8 MPs, an increase of 3. They also managed to finish second in Pest's 6th constituency despite no cooperation from other parties (unlike in Budapest's 1st constituency and Pest's 2nd constituency)
Last time around, the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) fought alongside other parties as part of a "Unity" coalition, which as I stated in my post about the 2014 Hungarian elections failed miserably, especially after being beset by scandals in the run-up to the election and a perceived failure to overcome its past. Two parties of that coalition, DK and EGYUTT (meaning "together" in Hungarian), went their own way and stood as separate parties. DK was the more successful by far, achieving 5.54% of the vote and a total of 9 seats. EGYUTT,meanwhile, achieved only 0.64% of the votes cast, behind the MOMENTUM movement and the frivolous Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP). The only reason they elected anyone at all is due to assistance from LMP and MSZP in Budapest's 17th constituency, which they won convincingly from Fidesz by a margin of 2,681 (Hungarian SMCs are generally the same size as British parliamentary constituencies). In total, the component parties of the Unity coalition actually lost seats overall, with the MSZP-Dialogue coalition finishing a poor third behind JOBBIK, Hungary's answer to UKIP and known for links to racist and antiziganist organisations. JOBBIK managed to win its first SMC (Fejer's 4th constituency) and increase its seat total by 2 to 25. Because Fidesz is despised by almost every other political party in Hungary, MSZP resorted to withdrawing in some constituencies to help JOBBIK win seats from them despite JOBBIK's hardline Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant stance. However, Gabor Vona, having failed to win Heves' 2nd constituency by 2,966 votes, resigned as leader of JOBBIK after the election result was announced as JOBBIK's vote fell below media expectations and also their own.
An independent candidate, Dr Tamas Mellar, won due to similar backing from the MSZP, defeating Fidesz-KDNP's Peter Csizi by 590 votes in Baranya's 1st constituency ("Pecs East"), but a similar pact could not help Zoltan Kesz in Veszprem's 1st constituency (he managed a respectable 30.89% of the vote however). The only other independent candidate ("Fuggetlen jelolt") to manage a respectable performance was a Mr Zoltan Fodor in "Miskolc North" (Borsod-Aubaj-Zempeln's 1st constituency) who by polling 2,105 votes managed to finish ahead of LMP's candidate.
Despite finishing with much more support than EGYUTT, neither the MOMENTUM movement (founded over opposition to Budapest hosting the Olympics, a bid later withdrawn by the Hungarian government) nor the Two-Tailed Dog Party gained any seats, winning 2.82% and 1.69% of the vote. At constituency level, not a single one of them finished ahead of any of the four major Hungarian parties or even managed more than 5%. It is by the way not unknown for joke parties like MKKP to gain representation; the Polish Beer-Lovers Party once won 16 seats in the Sejm (Polish parliament) in 1991, and the German equivalent, Die PARTEI, does have one MEP even though it has no prospect of winning seats in the Bundestag. The bigger joke, in fact, is the Hungarian Workers' Party (MUNKASPART) dropping to 0.29%, and of their candidates only Bela Konya managed to achieve more than 1% (he polled 1.18% in Borsod-Aubaj-Zempeln's 3rd constituency). In fact, the German-speaking minority community of Hungary managed more votes than MUNKASPART, becoming the very first community to win an MP in the Hungarian Parliament. The other 14 parties who registered for these elections failed to achieve even this low figure, and many got fewer than 100 votes when they stood in SMCs.
Of more significance is the turnout increase, which whilst predicted to boost opposition support (as such an increase did in Britain for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour) actually boosted the support of Fidesz, especially outside Budapest where electoral turnout is usually considerably lower. In the relatively deprived and industrial north east of Hungary, turnout struggled to beat 55% in 2014, but in many places in that area turnout rose by more than 10%, compared to a 5.83% rise for turnout in Hungary as a whole. This proved to be decisive in giving Viktor Orban another supermajority, and in further enforcing support for his particular stance.
Despite Viktor's illiberal regime and Putinesque control of Hungarian media, his hardline stances have actually struck a chord with many younger Hungarian voters who had never lived under Communist rule, which ended in 1989, and particularly those who feel left behind by the European Union. Fidesz' support is weakest in the capital, Budapest, and strongest in the western rural areas without a history of a strong industrial base and which are reasonably prosperous. Hungary is not a particularly urbanised country, with Budapest being 8 1/2 times the size of the second largest city, Debrecen, and with a population density only approximately 35% of that of the United Kingdom. Only seven cities outside the Hungarian capital have a population of more than 100,000, and this is significant when the population of Hungary is nearly 10,000,000. These demographics work substantially to Fidesz' advantage, and also to JOBBIK's in the poorer industrialised areas to the east.
True to form, Fidesz managed to increase its vote share by 4.16%, although it only gained 1 seat overall due to the fact it lost several single member constituencies in Budapest as a result of tactical voting. In Budapest's 1st constituency, Antal Csardi of LMP (Lehes Mat a Politika, Hungary's green party) won due to the Hungarian Socialists' candidate withdrawing, and the LMP withdrew some of their candidates in order to help defeat Fidesz-KDNP. Some Hungarian Socialist-Dialogue (a splinter from LMP) candidates withdrew to help the liberal Democratic Coalition Party (led by former Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurscany), three of whose candidates won SMCs in Budapest in addition to 6 list MPs. A similar effort was unable to ensure LMP leader Bernadett Szel's win of Budakezi (Pest's 2nd constituency), however; she lost by only 786 votes nonetheless so the LMP likely capture it next time around. LMP managed to improve their support somewhat, rising to 6.88% of the vote and 8 MPs, an increase of 3. They also managed to finish second in Pest's 6th constituency despite no cooperation from other parties (unlike in Budapest's 1st constituency and Pest's 2nd constituency)
Last time around, the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) fought alongside other parties as part of a "Unity" coalition, which as I stated in my post about the 2014 Hungarian elections failed miserably, especially after being beset by scandals in the run-up to the election and a perceived failure to overcome its past. Two parties of that coalition, DK and EGYUTT (meaning "together" in Hungarian), went their own way and stood as separate parties. DK was the more successful by far, achieving 5.54% of the vote and a total of 9 seats. EGYUTT,meanwhile, achieved only 0.64% of the votes cast, behind the MOMENTUM movement and the frivolous Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP). The only reason they elected anyone at all is due to assistance from LMP and MSZP in Budapest's 17th constituency, which they won convincingly from Fidesz by a margin of 2,681 (Hungarian SMCs are generally the same size as British parliamentary constituencies). In total, the component parties of the Unity coalition actually lost seats overall, with the MSZP-Dialogue coalition finishing a poor third behind JOBBIK, Hungary's answer to UKIP and known for links to racist and antiziganist organisations. JOBBIK managed to win its first SMC (Fejer's 4th constituency) and increase its seat total by 2 to 25. Because Fidesz is despised by almost every other political party in Hungary, MSZP resorted to withdrawing in some constituencies to help JOBBIK win seats from them despite JOBBIK's hardline Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant stance. However, Gabor Vona, having failed to win Heves' 2nd constituency by 2,966 votes, resigned as leader of JOBBIK after the election result was announced as JOBBIK's vote fell below media expectations and also their own.
An independent candidate, Dr Tamas Mellar, won due to similar backing from the MSZP, defeating Fidesz-KDNP's Peter Csizi by 590 votes in Baranya's 1st constituency ("Pecs East"), but a similar pact could not help Zoltan Kesz in Veszprem's 1st constituency (he managed a respectable 30.89% of the vote however). The only other independent candidate ("Fuggetlen jelolt") to manage a respectable performance was a Mr Zoltan Fodor in "Miskolc North" (Borsod-Aubaj-Zempeln's 1st constituency) who by polling 2,105 votes managed to finish ahead of LMP's candidate.
Despite finishing with much more support than EGYUTT, neither the MOMENTUM movement (founded over opposition to Budapest hosting the Olympics, a bid later withdrawn by the Hungarian government) nor the Two-Tailed Dog Party gained any seats, winning 2.82% and 1.69% of the vote. At constituency level, not a single one of them finished ahead of any of the four major Hungarian parties or even managed more than 5%. It is by the way not unknown for joke parties like MKKP to gain representation; the Polish Beer-Lovers Party once won 16 seats in the Sejm (Polish parliament) in 1991, and the German equivalent, Die PARTEI, does have one MEP even though it has no prospect of winning seats in the Bundestag. The bigger joke, in fact, is the Hungarian Workers' Party (MUNKASPART) dropping to 0.29%, and of their candidates only Bela Konya managed to achieve more than 1% (he polled 1.18% in Borsod-Aubaj-Zempeln's 3rd constituency). In fact, the German-speaking minority community of Hungary managed more votes than MUNKASPART, becoming the very first community to win an MP in the Hungarian Parliament. The other 14 parties who registered for these elections failed to achieve even this low figure, and many got fewer than 100 votes when they stood in SMCs.
Of more significance is the turnout increase, which whilst predicted to boost opposition support (as such an increase did in Britain for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour) actually boosted the support of Fidesz, especially outside Budapest where electoral turnout is usually considerably lower. In the relatively deprived and industrial north east of Hungary, turnout struggled to beat 55% in 2014, but in many places in that area turnout rose by more than 10%, compared to a 5.83% rise for turnout in Hungary as a whole. This proved to be decisive in giving Viktor Orban another supermajority, and in further enforcing support for his particular stance.
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