GroenLinking it up in der Nederlanden-Dutch local elections, 2018.
The Dutch local elections took place yesterday in 335 municipalities (45, including many municipalities in Groningen, did not have elections due to mergers occurring; council mergers occur frequently and sporadically in the Netherlands), alongside a referendum on granting the Dutch Intelligence Services increased surveillance powers. The measure to introduce these new powers was narrowly rejected by a margin of 49.5% to 46.5% in said referendum, with 4% being blank votes not indicating a preference either way. Progressive university cities in particular like Utrecht, Groningen and Nijmegen were very decisive in their rejection, usually by a margin of more than 2 to 1. The provinces of Groningen and Friesland also heavily rejected it even outside the university towns. Most of the support for the increased surveillance powers came from the southern provinces of Zeeland, North Brabant and Limburg, the Calvinist/fundamentalist Protestant "Bible Belt" and prosperous communities close to Amsterdam and The Hague.
(Dutch local election map, 2018: municipality colours show largest party):
(Dutch referendum results map: blue indicates for, red indicates against):
Across the country, GroenLinks became the largest party on the councils of Haarlem, Delft, Zutphen, Nijmegen, Arnhem, Diemen, Renkum, Wageningen, Wormerland, Helmond, Utrecht, Culemborg, and most critically, the capital city of Amsterdam; 13 in all. This is the highest number in GroenLinks' history, and it mostly came at the expense of the liberal-moderate Democrats 66 (D66) who have become part of a VVD-led government (whose coalition, comprising the VVD, CDA, D66, and CU has a majority of only two seats in the House of Representatives and a one-seat majority in the Senate), The Democrats 66's decision to enter the coalition has cost it large amounts of support in the liberal-leaning cities, especially Amsterdam where it fell from 26.6% to 16% of the vote, losing 6 of their 14 seats. D66 only finished first in three municipalities, those being Amersfoort, Gouda, and Leiden; even there D66 lost 1/4 to 1/3 of their 2014 vote. In many of these municipalities, GroenLinks' support doubled compared to 2014. It also came at the expense of the Socialist Party and the Labour Party (PvdA), mainly due to an increase of younger, socially liberal voters in those areas and the Dutch Labour Party's continuing woes. One notable example is the provincial capital of Gelderland, Arnhem, where the Socialists lost more than half of their 2014 vote and lost 5 of their 8 seats; Utrecht experienced a similar event. GL's vote nearly doubled in Arnhem from 8.9% to 16.5%. GL also contested, and won seats on, many smaller municipalities for the first time, even where Protestant parties (CU and SGP) otherwise dominate, which is testament to Jesse Klaver's strong leadership (Jesse also once led the Christian Federation of Trade Unions in the Netherlands) and the excellent organisation which GL has as a result, meaning it can reach out well beyond the progressive cities and their suburban environs.
The total of municipalities where either PvdA or the SP topped the poll is in fact lower than the number of municipalities where GL topped the poll, with PvdA coming first in only five municipalities, all in the north of the Netherlands, and only increased their seat total in Harlingen. The Socialists topped the poll in just four municipalities: Enkhuizen, Heerlen, Oss, and Pekela.. Meanwhile the CDA (Christian Democratic Appeal), CU (Christian Union) and VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy) found their support to hold up reasonably well compared to 2014, except where local groups were performing particularly well. One notable exception is Dinkelland, where the CDA overtook the Lokal Dinkelland group, who actually lost 3 of their seats in what was otherwise a good day for local parties. The hardline Calvinist SGP's support also held up in the rural Protestant areas it contests, with a few notable exceptions in Zeeland such as Goeree-Overflakkee, where it lost 2 seats.
Although Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) only contested a minority of municipalities, the gains made by small-conservative local groups where PVV managed to top the poll in last year's Dutch general election show substantial amounts of tacit support by the PVV for these groups, which is comparable in past years in Britain to UKIP managing to win many seats in rural areas and poorer towns normally only winnable by Conservative/Labour councillors or locally focused Independents. Many of these groups topped the poll in areas with strong support for PVV last year despite the groups having no connection to PVV of any type. PVV lost considerable support in many municipalities even without any like-minded groups also contesting. Despite polling often as much as 10% in recent opinion polls in the Netherlands, the national-conservative Forum for Democracy (a splinter group from PVV) only contested two municipalities (one of them being Amsterdam where they won 3 seats, even though Amsterdam would never give high levels of support to a national-conservative party like FvD) and many of their voters likewise supported localist groups.
These latest local elections are reflective mainly of long term changes in Dutch voting habits, particularly in relation to GroenLinks' record high in terms of votes. The shine is clearly coming off Alexander Pechtold and D66, although D66 always does poorly after entering government coalitions in the Netherlands. It is also early days for the current Dutch government which has only been in office for five months, with the European Parliament elections of May 2019 being a more important test for Dutch political parties in the current parliament.
(Dutch local election map, 2018: municipality colours show largest party):
(Dutch referendum results map: blue indicates for, red indicates against):
Across the country, GroenLinks became the largest party on the councils of Haarlem, Delft, Zutphen, Nijmegen, Arnhem, Diemen, Renkum, Wageningen, Wormerland, Helmond, Utrecht, Culemborg, and most critically, the capital city of Amsterdam; 13 in all. This is the highest number in GroenLinks' history, and it mostly came at the expense of the liberal-moderate Democrats 66 (D66) who have become part of a VVD-led government (whose coalition, comprising the VVD, CDA, D66, and CU has a majority of only two seats in the House of Representatives and a one-seat majority in the Senate), The Democrats 66's decision to enter the coalition has cost it large amounts of support in the liberal-leaning cities, especially Amsterdam where it fell from 26.6% to 16% of the vote, losing 6 of their 14 seats. D66 only finished first in three municipalities, those being Amersfoort, Gouda, and Leiden; even there D66 lost 1/4 to 1/3 of their 2014 vote. In many of these municipalities, GroenLinks' support doubled compared to 2014. It also came at the expense of the Socialist Party and the Labour Party (PvdA), mainly due to an increase of younger, socially liberal voters in those areas and the Dutch Labour Party's continuing woes. One notable example is the provincial capital of Gelderland, Arnhem, where the Socialists lost more than half of their 2014 vote and lost 5 of their 8 seats; Utrecht experienced a similar event. GL's vote nearly doubled in Arnhem from 8.9% to 16.5%. GL also contested, and won seats on, many smaller municipalities for the first time, even where Protestant parties (CU and SGP) otherwise dominate, which is testament to Jesse Klaver's strong leadership (Jesse also once led the Christian Federation of Trade Unions in the Netherlands) and the excellent organisation which GL has as a result, meaning it can reach out well beyond the progressive cities and their suburban environs.
The total of municipalities where either PvdA or the SP topped the poll is in fact lower than the number of municipalities where GL topped the poll, with PvdA coming first in only five municipalities, all in the north of the Netherlands, and only increased their seat total in Harlingen. The Socialists topped the poll in just four municipalities: Enkhuizen, Heerlen, Oss, and Pekela.. Meanwhile the CDA (Christian Democratic Appeal), CU (Christian Union) and VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy) found their support to hold up reasonably well compared to 2014, except where local groups were performing particularly well. One notable exception is Dinkelland, where the CDA overtook the Lokal Dinkelland group, who actually lost 3 of their seats in what was otherwise a good day for local parties. The hardline Calvinist SGP's support also held up in the rural Protestant areas it contests, with a few notable exceptions in Zeeland such as Goeree-Overflakkee, where it lost 2 seats.
Although Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) only contested a minority of municipalities, the gains made by small-conservative local groups where PVV managed to top the poll in last year's Dutch general election show substantial amounts of tacit support by the PVV for these groups, which is comparable in past years in Britain to UKIP managing to win many seats in rural areas and poorer towns normally only winnable by Conservative/Labour councillors or locally focused Independents. Many of these groups topped the poll in areas with strong support for PVV last year despite the groups having no connection to PVV of any type. PVV lost considerable support in many municipalities even without any like-minded groups also contesting. Despite polling often as much as 10% in recent opinion polls in the Netherlands, the national-conservative Forum for Democracy (a splinter group from PVV) only contested two municipalities (one of them being Amsterdam where they won 3 seats, even though Amsterdam would never give high levels of support to a national-conservative party like FvD) and many of their voters likewise supported localist groups.
These latest local elections are reflective mainly of long term changes in Dutch voting habits, particularly in relation to GroenLinks' record high in terms of votes. The shine is clearly coming off Alexander Pechtold and D66, although D66 always does poorly after entering government coalitions in the Netherlands. It is also early days for the current Dutch government which has only been in office for five months, with the European Parliament elections of May 2019 being a more important test for Dutch political parties in the current parliament.
Comments
Post a Comment